Stock Market crash
Indian shares fell on Thursday due to global market weakness, rising crude oil prices, and persistent selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). The BSE Sensex declined 0.92% and the Nifty50 fell below 19,550. The decline was seen across sectors, with IT and FMCG being the top losers. Today's bloodbath resulted in the market capitalisation of all listed companies on BSE declining by Rs 2.55 lakh crore to Rs 317.05 lakh crore.
NSE's Nifty fell 159.05 points or 0.8% to close at 19,742.35. BSE's Sensex declined 570.60 points or 0.85% to end at 66,230.24. Both indices have dropped close to 2.4% in the past three trading sessions after hitting record highs last week.
A Golden Crossover suggests a shift from a bearish to a bullish sentiment, indicating a potential trend reversal. The pattern also provides validation for a stock's positive momentum and can bolster investor confidence
As an investor in Indian equity markets, you must not fret over the US downgrade by Fitch and focus on stocks that you own in your portfolio over anything else. Make sure that they are fundamentally sound and hold them with patience.
Fitch's latest move has revived memories of how stocks around the world had crashed in 2011 when S&P downgraded US credit rating by one notch to AA+ with a negative outlook, citing concerns about budget deficits.
Among the Sensex stocks, Tata Steel, L&T, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, TCS, and Tata Motors opened lower, while only Reliance Industries and Asian Paints opened higher.
Indian stock markets saw a decline after blue chips Infosys and Hindustan Unilever reported disappointing earnings, ending a record six-day run. The NSE Nifty fell 1.17% to 19,745 and the BSE Sensex declined 1.31% to 66,684.26. Shares in IT firms such as Infosys plummeted after the company cut its revenue growth outlook; the Nifty IT index saw its biggest single-day decline since 17 April, falling 4.1%. Despite foreign portfolio investors pumping around INR85,000 crore ($11.5bn) into Indian equities since March, FPIs were net sellers of INR1,998.77 crore on Friday.
Led by a 10% crash in shares of Infosys, Sensex plunged 1000 points to slip below the 67,000 mark while Nifty cracked 1% to the sub-19,800 level. On the back of a Rs 1.15 lakh crore push from FIIs, Sensex and Nifty have seen a 10% rally so far in the calendar year 2023 to all-time high levels.
Among Sensex stocks, Infosys was the top loser, falling over 8%. HCL Tech, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, HUL, TCS, and Reliance also opened with losses. On the other hand, L&T, Kotak Bank, SBI, Nestle, M&M, and Titan opened with gains.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys and Tech Mahindra were the top losers, falling 7-11%. Wipro, HCL Tech, TCS, HDFC Bank, HDFC and NTPC also opened in the red. On the other hand, Power Grid, Nestle, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel traded with gains.
The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex declined 520 points or 0.86% to settle at 59,910. The broader NSE Nifty dropped 121 points or 0.68% to end at 17,706. In the Sensex pack, Infosys was the top loser, while Tech Mahindra declined over 5%. HCL Tech, L&T, NTPC, Wipro and HDFC also ended in the red. On the other hand, Nestle, Power Grid, SBI, Kotak Bank and UltraTech Cement closed with gains.
Sensex ended below the 60,000 mark while Nifty ended near its support at 17,700 level. IT major Infosys, whose shares ended 9.4% down, was the single largest drag on both the indices. The selloff was across the board in IT stocks as Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro ended up to 5% lower.
The NSE Nifty fell 111.65 points or 0.65% to close at 16,988.40. The BSE Sensex declined 360.95 points or 0.62% to end at 57,628.95. "It's the fear factor that the crisis in the developed market financial system will not end soon which is dragging down the market at the moment," said Siddarth Bhamre, head, research, Religare Broking.
Even as Swiss regulators averted a financial crisis by negotiating a $3.25 billion buyout of troubled Credit Suisse by rival UBS, investors are worried about the domino effect in the global banking system.
Since the release of the report, Nifty Bank is down over 2,400 points with both private and PSU lenders facing the wrath. In the second half of today's session, most bank stocks recovered losses.
After a month of drawing down positions, investors poured $25 billion in stocks in the week through Wednesday only to see the S&P 500 plummet as the Federal Reserve and other central banks stuck with hawkish stances that threaten to spur a recession. The benchmark index ended the week with its worst three-day drop in two months, shattering chart support and putting it on track for its first down December since 2018, when rate angst was wreaking similar havoc.
The gross purchase of the local funds remained more than Rs one lakh crore in January for the second month in row. The net inflow was Rs 17,958 crore in the month. This partially offset rising redemption pressure from foreign funds as they sold equities worth Rs 28,852 crore, the highest in seven months.
The Sensex closed at 59,330.90, down 874.16 points, or 1.45%, from the previous close, after briefly slipping below 59,000 during Friday trade. The Nifty fell 287.60 points, or 1.61%, to end at 17,604.35. Both indices posted their biggest single-day fall in four months to retreat to levels last seen at the end of October 2022.
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“The global market backdrop continues to be weak due to the strong economic data from the US. The paradox of good economic news turning out to be bad news for markets is playing out. Data from US on consumer confidence, jobless claims, and Q3 GDP numbers surprised on the upside, indicating continuation of the hawkish monetary stance from the Fed,” V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services said.
In the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Maruti and UltraTech Cement were the top losers, falling over 2%. Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finance and SBI also closed with cuts
The Indian rupee declined against the dollar on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan's unexpected hawkish shift prompted a rise in Japanese and US yields, and impacted risk appetite. The rupee was at 82.8 per US dollar around noon.
Equity inflows totalled $18 billion and bond funds saw $2.3 billion of inflows while investors sold $0.2 billion of gold and shed cash at the highest rate in three months, selling $31.1 billion.
As the world enters another period of uncertainty, looking back at tough episodes in the past can provide a useful perspective on how to deal with the current one.
After today's market crash, investors became poorer by around Rs 7 lakh crore as the market capitalisation of all BSE-listed companies dropped to Rs 269.86 lakh crore.
Roubini expects the US and global recession to last all of 2023, depending on how severe the supply shocks and financial distress will be. During the 2008 crisis, households and banks took the hardest hits. This time around, he said corporations, and shadow banks, such as hedge funds, private equity and credit funds.
I must also say that if there is scepticism, I would be less concerned. When there is complete confidence that this market is going to go up, that is when I would be concerned. As we speak today, while markets have done well over the last two months, some amount of money has been made for a lot of people who are invested with the belief is that with each rally, book profits, take money off the table and hence there is scepticism.
The 30-share pack Sensex plunged more than 1,150 points to open at 59,417.12, whereas NSE's barometer tanked more than 180 points to 17,887.70. However, both benchmark indices recovered partially.
Coming off the worst first-half since 1970, US equities now face a triple whammy of sticky inflation, recession risks and the threat to corporate profits from sinking consumer confidence. After just about everyone on Wall Street got their 2022 predictions wrong, investors are now focused on a toxic mix that spells stagflation and more damage to valuations.
As many as 110 of the stocks are linked directly to agri commodities, such as sugar, rubber, tea and coffee, the sector classification suggests. This excludes 114 stocks from the FMCG sector.
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“As good cyclical-oriented sectors and stocks are correcting, they are the ones to accumulate because the bounce back in earnings will more than justify those allocations though in the short run, it might look like one is taking on a lot more risk. It is a very blended play and that is the best way to harness volatility in our favour.”
“I feel that inflation will peak out by September or so and then probably start tapering down and that will be good news for our central bank. Let us hope people do not panic and use this opportunity to go out of the weak sectors and stocks that one is not comfortable.”
While market gurus are divided over whether we are in the mid of a bear phase or a correction in a bull market that began in the aftermath of the Covid-led crash in March 2020, most experts believe that the weakness may continue ahead of the Fed meeting outcome on Wednesday.
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“From a global investor point of view, the bottom fishing story could go to some of the value markets which have corrected far more than what India has done. I would continue to stay on the cautious lines and do not really see any big money making ideas from the broader market as such. ”
The NSE Nifty shed 1.68% to end at 16,201.80 points. The BSE Sensex fell 1.84% to close at 54,303.44. Shares of lenders, information technology companies and Reliance Industries led the declines.
“Technology stocks had corrected more than 20% in the period between filing our initial draft documents to our IPO so we modified our pricing,” Barua said. “We decided we’d rather have modestly-priced shares which rise rather than tumble on listing.”
There are a set of things—basic ideas about investing—that one can remind oneself when the market is looking shaky. They are not new, but actually reinforcements.
“Incremental data points oriented towards higher inflation are spooking the markets and understandably so. My sense is that it is going to remain this way for the next couple of months till the worst of inflation is over. After that, it should start coming off if the flow of things goes around.”
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At 2.40 pm, the BSE Sensex was trading 1,485.84 points or 2.74 per cent lower at 52,722.69. Nifty50 was trading at 15,789.65, down 450.65 points or 2.77 per cent. Midcap and smallcap indices fell around 3 per cent.
“It is better to be safe right now. Be in stocks where you are sure about the earnings; concept stocks and price to sales and some other random multiples can be avoided. We are broadly underweight IT but we would be long on specific stocks where we think there is strong earnings momentum; we have been very long in PSU banks and have upped our exposure. In auto, commercial vehicles make the best bets.”
As the carnage grows deeper in the broader market, Dalal Street is now full of pessimism. Amid heavy FII outflows, retail and other domestic investors have not been able to save Sensex. Market veteran Shankar Sharma says in situations like this, one should keep it simple - buy strength and not weakness.
"Fear and loathing suggest stocks prone to imminent bear market rally but we do not think ultimate lows have been reached", the team led by Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett argued.
Veteran fund manager Saurabh Mukherjea says it is not a new trend as share prices of his consistent compounders portfolio, which includes some of the names mentioned above, often go on a ‘holiday’ for 12-24 months, delivering weak or no returns.
Data showed BSE m-cap fell by Rs 5.16 lakh crore to Rs 241.15 lakh crore from Rs 246.31 lakh crore in the previous session. The BSE m-cap on April 11 stood at Rs 275.17 lakh crore.
The 30-share pack Sensex declined 276 points or 0.51 per cent to close at 54,088. Its broader peer, NSE Nifty, dropped 73 points to settle below the 16,200 mark.
Chaos and high volatility must not be a worry for long-term investors and in the short-term one should look for less volatile and inflation immune stocks such as defensives, experts suggested.
What hit the sentiment most was a fall in rupee to an all-time low against the greenback, thanks to rising US Treasury yields amid fears of an aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in June FOMC meet.
Sensex stock Bajaj Finserv declined 3.32 per cent to Rs 13,667.45. Bajaj Finance dropped 2.76 per cent to Rs 13,745. Hindustan Unilever, Maruti Suzuki, Wipro and HCL Technologies fell up to 2.7 per cent.
Asian Paints was the worst Sensex stock, falling 1.78 per cent to Rs 3,181. Maruti Suzuki declined 1.78 per cent to Rs 7,595 as March quarter numbers failed to lift investor sentiment. Titan Company, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement dropped over 1 per cent each.
“It is difficult to predict how long this short term correction would last but for longer term investors, sectors and stocks within the market are beginning to look attractive.”
“I believe that this kind of correction or a sharp fall is becoming an opportunity for investors to buy into. The traders may still want to wait, but investors would possibly look at this falling market to buy into the portfolios.”
Investors were left poorer by Rs 3.36 lakh crore as the total market cap of BSE-listed firms, which reflects investor wealth, slipped to Rs 269.85 lakh crore. Investors have lost Rs 10.17 lakh crore in the market fall since Tuesday.
Dragged by losses in metal, energy, FMCG, technology, oil and gas and realty counters, the 30-share pack Sensex shed 617.26 points or 1.08 per cent for the second day to close at 56,579.89. Its broader peer NSE Nifty also fell 186.70 points or 1.09 per cent to settle below the 17,200 mark, over 80% stocks declined in trade.
“When we go through a cycle like this, I would not want to go bottom fishing because structurally that industry has not changed. There are more participants in the industry, everyone wants market share, they will be ready to price the products out there. The biggest earners from rising commodity prices are the commodity companies and the government due to higher taxes. They are going to be the next spender in the cycle. Just align with those cash flows. The portfolio will be fairly robust for the next eight years of the decade.”
The Nifty50 was trading at 17,204.70, down 270.95 points or 1.55 per cent. Midcap and smallcap indices fared better, falling up to 1 per cent each.
The strategists caution that the selloff that took the S&P 500 12% from its January record is not over and sharp rallies are typical of volatility in bear markets, with some of the biggest on record occurring in the throes of the dot-com meltdown and the global financial crisis. A closely watched Treasury market metric flashed a recession warning Tuesday.
The 30-share pack Sensex declined 1189.73 points or 2.09 per cent to close at 55,822.01. The index at one point had hit the low of 55,132.68 before late stage recovery. Its broader peer NSE Nifty fell 371 points or 2.18 per cent to 16,614.20.
“Given the correction, 80% of the BSE 500 stocks have corrected 20% or more and are in a bear market. Why would you want to play defensives now? Today I would start accumulating some of the fallen angels and start looking at those stocks; it is too late to get into defensives, one could have done that maybe a month ago.”
“Dr Reddy’s and Sun Pharma looks quite promising in the pharma pack. The recent correction in the market has given a decent room for a near-term upside. In the metal pack, Tata Steel looks like a value play from here. Vedanta also could do very well and the valuation looks quite promising.”
“The recruitment market has been on a tear. We had great almost four quarters now and there are no signs of the market slowing down. In fact, till two month ago, it was mostly the IT market which was doing well for us. IT is a large part of the hiring sort of mix on Naukri but now even the non-IT companies are bouncing back.”
“The US market has been soaring while the other markets have been moving sidewards or down. Emerging markets and Europe have never been this cheap compared to the US and if the conflict dissolved tomorrow, I would buy Indian shares and not US stocks. Also, one needs to own some gold, silver and platinum as an insurance against political problems . But if only 5% of your assets in gold, the hedge is way too small. ”
According to the data from Ace Equity, 20 penny stocks were able to tide through tough times to rally up to 725 per cent so far this year.
“In terms of energy prices and if I add it to the move we had already seen in January in terms of rising bond yields and weaker equities translated into what I would call an oil price adjusted financial conditions index, that would be telling me that all odds being equal, the world economy will slow very sharply through the second quarter and beyond. ”
“The geopolitical tensions of this unprecedented level will lead to some rethink on metals and mining and oil and gas. Even after the war stops and things normalise, countries will take a hard look at their metals and oil and gas strategy. So, if a country or if a company is producing metals or pumping oil or gas, they become much more valuable and that value will continue in the foreseeable future. ”
“Steel exports from India will increase because this is a good market today as far as the spot market is concerned. The opportunity for the Indian steel industry lies in exporting more and more to the European Union and also the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. The increased input costs can be set off easily because the prices in Europe are much higher than the prices in India.”
“For people who have not taken money off the table, it might be too late to sell because the move down and a possible recovery could then both be pretty rapid. Markets will now start factoring in negatives very fast and it might not be a good opportunity to exit. ”
“We are increasingly thinking that the chance of the sanctions against Russia becoming broader is higher than 50%. We think that oil could be included in sanctions and that is going to add to the pressure on the consumer. We are dealing with high inflation and at some point, it will start to hurt growth.”
Among the bluechip names, ONGC was the biggest gainer, rising 13.16 per cent. Hindalco Industries, Coal India, Bharti Airtel, UPL, HCL Tech, Tata Steel and Infosys were other major gainers. IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Nifty pack, falling 8.14 per cent.
“Despite the developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US economy is in a very strong shape, they are not impacted by this oil move as much as some of the oil dependent countries like India are. Therefore, these are the sectors – IT, textiles and chemicals which are definitely worth looking into.”
“This is not a very good macro set up and not just for the reasons that I have mentioned for the last five-six months, The shock is that suddenly crude is deviating dramatically from its trend line. Now we have been served a $60-70 billion bill by the rest of the world in the form of higher crude prices, higher fertiliser prices, coal prices and so on and so forth. Who is going to foot the bill? It is not going to be a good deal for both bond markets and equity markets.”
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies tanked Rs 76,808.9 crore to Rs 2,51,62,236.19 crore in tandem with a massive selloff.
At 9.30 am, BSE Sensex was ruling at 54,938.42, down 920.10 points or 1.65 per cent. The NSE Nifty stood at 16,373.95, down 284.45 points or 1.71 per cent.
Questioning the definition of bull and bear markets, Vijay Kedia said everybody defines it according to their own portfolios.
“We have told clients that if you have a Rs 100 budget, buy Rs 30 worth today. It does not matter. You can buy more tomorrow when the prices are lower. Do it maybe in four lots so that you are not catching the falling knife. You can average it out but do it at this point of time. Do not just sit and watch the market that will be really stupid.”
“Even if the Ukraine crisis eases off over the next couple of days, there has been a reset at some level in terms of geopolitical expectations. In that context, it probably makes more sense being in the quality end of whichever sector you play in. That would tend to make a little bit more sense rather than trying to be too cute and trying to find stocks that have got distorted significantly in this price correction. Within the space, you should play at the quality end rather than necessarily go low.”
“I would not say that it is a good idea to rush into the markets yet because it is still adjusting to what is happening. But there is no need to exit companies that have strong balance sheets and are growing earnings and have pricing power. ”
The military attack on Ukraine cast a shadow over global markets and sparked a fresh bout of risk aversion. Russian assets took the main blow after President Vladimir Putin ordered an operation to “demilitarize” Russia’s neighbor, prompting international condemnation and a U.S. threat of further “severe sanctions” on Moscow.
“At this point of time, we do not know whether this would spiral into a military conflict. But the most obvious reaction of investors has been to sell and get out and wait for clarity to emerge. So many stocks may look fundamentally attractive after a sharp downturn, but it is obviously not the time to buy because you are quite likely to get a better price tomorrow or the day after.”
“If there is deployable cash and if one has stayed out of the market till now, then, if one was to invest at current levels, then the next one-year, two-year returns are going to be very favourable. One is going to buy favoured sectors at much lower prices than what it should be.”
“Do not just jump in today, the first day of correction, Just wait and watch in terms of how events pan out. I personally would think that at any point around 16,000-16,500 there will be value buying opportunities which are occurring now. So once there is clarity that this is not something very full scale involving the world powers, then one can start nibbling in.”
“From an investor’s point of view, there is no doubt that when there is fear, one buys. But the question is whether it is going to subside immediately and it does not look like it is going to subside immediately. Given the fact that structurally till the supply side constraints are there, commodity prices will remain at an elevated level.”
Overall, the market crash has pulled down nearly 279 stocks to their respective one-year lows on the BSE.
“Russia is a major supplier of a lot of metals – Palladium, aluminium. They supply coal. So there are a lot of commodities that are coming out of Russia and that can create risks that we cannot quantify right now. The markets will have to get to valuations where all these risks are discounted. However, markets are far from being screaming buys.”
“From a capital protection or a buying perspective, banking and capital goods look attractive. Within the sub segments or within the other pockets, recovery plays and especially hospitality players are what can be looked at because if we are not going to see any further Covid waves, then potentially we will see a good recovery for that particular segment and the entire hospitality lot looks attractive.”
“There is no point in selling into fear. If you look back, at events like this, typically whenever these events wind down, the markets typically tend to bounce back. So unless it is absolutely necessary, it is counterproductive to sell into a panic like this; whether you want to buy or not is entirely up to the investor’s risk appetite.”
The BSE market capitalisation fell to Rs 246 lakh crore from Rs 256 lakh crore in the previous session. It was down a whopping Rs 16 lakh crore since February 16 close of Rs 246 lakh crore. One out of every six stocks had hit its lower circuit limit by this time.
The 30-share pack Sensex tumbled 2702.15 points or 4.72 per cent to close at 54,529.91. Its broader peer NSE Nifty tanked 815.30 points or 4.78 per cent to 16,247.95.
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“We expect the first half of 2022 to be volatile, driven by not just geopolitics but also fears on inflation and US interest rate hikes among others. In the second half of the year, the earnings recovery would start to take some shape and form. We have been advising investors to use the volatility in the first half to gradually and steadily get invested rather than on a lump sum basis.”
“The market is more news flow driven and so while in today’s market, in intraday we have seen the largecap index recovering, that recovery is not visible in the midcaps and smallcaps and certainly not in the individual stocks and more so not in the stocks which retail investors have been holding in general. It does not look like a comfortable point has been reached for bottom fishing. ”
“No mark is given out for being extra brave. You just need to be averagely brave to make money. You do not need to bare your chest and scream “bring it on, I will take it on my chest.” So stay put. There are stocks getting more and more attractive. As long as the fundamentals hold, they will become good buys once the dust settles down.”
“If we are going into a rough patch for the US market, than that could prove to be a great positive. One good thing about India is that foreigners are not loaded to the gills with Indian stocks like they were in 2008. I do not see a lot of pent-up selling from foreigners because that selling has largely taken place already.”
"In a healthy economy, invest in high quality companies that are compounding their businesses, their cash flows at around 25%. Stay invested and benefit from it as your wealth grows 10x in 10 years. The more you get lost in the minutiae of Fed rate hikes, Ukraine, oil price and UP elections, the less money you will make."
"I personally do not think the Ukraine faceoff is going to escalate into a real hot war. I think it is simply a representation of the fact that the world is splitting into blocks and we have probably already been in it for sometime – a cold war. This is unfortunate but the markets did well throughout the cold war with the Soviet Union. I think markets can do well in this situation and try to put a positive spin on it."
“Our advice to our clients is not to dabble into mid and small size companies as they are most vulnerable to inflationary pressures as cost of energy and raw material prices go up. Maybe they can stay with some of the large companies and within the large companies also try and avoid the commodity influences.”
The BSE market capitalisation hit a low of Rs 251.72 lakh crore in Tuesday's trade, which was down Rs 5.67 lakh crore over Monday's levels. Since February 16's closing value of Rs 262.19 lakh crore, stock investors have lost Rs 10.46 lakh crore in fortune.
The sharp rise in crude oil prices due to the Russian ‘invasion’ into Europe pushed indices sharply lower in the morning. However, they recovered after crude oil prices cooled off a bit.
SBI, Nestle India, Titan Company, Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC shed over 1 per cent each. HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra, ITC and Hindustan Unilever declined up to 1 per cent.