The Indian stock market gained for the fifth consecutive day as the Nifty rose by 2.5%, posting a weekly gain of 4.06% as the VIX tested its pre-pandemic lows. However, the low level of the VIX makes the markets vulnerable to sharp profit-taking bouts. Nifty has bounced off its 200-DAY moving average, which provides strong support. Additionally, 100-Week moving average at 17214 also acts as strong support. One must be cautious while chasing the up moves and trail stop losses of the long players.
Sensex ends 636 points or 1.04% lower at 60,826, and Nifty 50 closes with cuts of 190 points or 1.04% at 18,127
“The view on both the indices will remain cautious and stock specific. The market breadth is not doing very well. The 1:4 ratio is there. So the overall view is a little bit cautious. We are not initiating a major long position in this kind of a market because we believe that the downfall is likely to be continued in the coming week as well. ”
Putting Asian markets under pressure was Japan's core consumer inflation data which hit a fresh 40-year high of 3.7% in November as companies continued to pass on rising costs to households. Japan's Nikkei lost over 1% and was set for its worst week since mid-June.
"Nifty Smallcap 50 and the Nifty Smallcap 250 they are off the all time highs from somewhere between 8% and 21% depending on which index one is looking at. They have already been underperforming and once the heavyweights start dragging the markets lower, the underperformance of the broader markets will continue. Once things start turning down for the largecaps, the selling in the broader markets could get more intense."
During opening session, the BSE Sensex was trading 744.07 points or1.25 per cent lower at 58,793. Nifty50 was trading at 17,564.95, down 194.35 points or 1.09 per cent.
Fears around aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve were back to haunt investors as the surprisingly low US unemployment rate at 3.5 per cent implies that the Fed will have to continue raising interest rates longer than the markets had discounted.
The only index that ended in the green during the day was the fear gauge index India VIX which shot up over 9%. PSU banks, realty, financial services and media stocks were among the worst hit during the selloff.After hitting an all-time peak of 18,604.45 on October 19 last year, Nifty hit a 52-week low of 15,183.40 earlier on June 17
The 30-share pack Sensex plunged more than 1,150 points to open at 59,417.12, whereas NSE's barometer tanked more than 180 points to 17,887.70. However, both benchmark indices recovered partially.
The 30-share pack Sensex dropped 861.25 points to close at 57,972.62. Its broader peer, Nifty50, slipped below the 16,350 mark. Reliance closed 0.84 per cent lower after the company's 45th AGM.
"The Fed’s dot plot was also moved higher with year-end rates expected to be 3.40 per cent from 2.80 per cent previously. That implies another 1.75 per cent of hiking is still to come in 2022," said Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA.
Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said as globally markets are highly integrated, the largest market, US, sets the trend and others follow.
While market gurus are divided over whether we are in the mid of a bear phase or a correction in a bull market that began in the aftermath of the Covid-led crash in March 2020, most experts believe that the weakness may continue ahead of the Fed meeting outcome on Wednesday.
At 9.30 am, BSE Sensex was ruling at 54,938.42, down 920.10 points or 1.65 per cent. The NSE Nifty stood at 16,373.95, down 284.45 points or 1.71 per cent.
Questioning the definition of bull and bear markets, Vijay Kedia said everybody defines it according to their own portfolios.
The BSE market capitalisation hit a low of Rs 251.72 lakh crore in Tuesday's trade, which was down Rs 5.67 lakh crore over Monday's levels. Since February 16's closing value of Rs 262.19 lakh crore, stock investors have lost Rs 10.46 lakh crore in fortune.
Record low rupee is weighing on foreign flows into the country. The partially convertible rupee stood at 77.6780 against the greenback and traded near all-time low levels.
If markets are to reverse strongly, key triggers will be needed which in the current context could be the quick easing of inflation and a pause on the aggressiveness of interest rate hikes. Currently, there are no visible signs of such turning points. Therefore, it is unlikely that the markets are bottoming out.
What hit the sentiment most was a fall in rupee to an all-time low against the greenback, thanks to rising US Treasury yields amid fears of an aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in June FOMC meet.
Asian Paints was the worst Sensex stock, falling 1.78 per cent to Rs 3,181. Maruti Suzuki declined 1.78 per cent to Rs 7,595 as March quarter numbers failed to lift investor sentiment. Titan Company, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement dropped over 1 per cent each.
Erasing initial gains amid a choppy session, the 30-share pack Sensex declined 460.19 points or 0.80% to close at 57,060.87. Axis Bank, Reliance, and Infosys were top index drags. The Nifty Bank index fell nearly 1 per cent. Its broader peer, NSE Nifty50, slumped 142.50 points or 0.83% to 17,102.55.
Infosys was down 5.7 per cent to Rs 1,649. It also dragged shares of other IT companies such as Tech Mahindra (down 4 per cent), HCL Tech (down 2.3 per cent) and Wipro (down 2.2 per cent), which will soon disclose their quarterly earnings. IT stocks account for substantial weight in Sensex.
Among the bluechip names, ONGC was the biggest gainer, rising 13.16 per cent. Hindalco Industries, Coal India, Bharti Airtel, UPL, HCL Tech, Tata Steel and Infosys were other major gainers. IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Nifty pack, falling 8.14 per cent.
Data showed the BSE market capitalisation stood at about Rs 246 lakh crore on Friday compared with Rs 251 lakh crore in the previous session, a fall of Rs 5 lakh crore or $66 billion at today's exchange rate of 76 per dollar.
The 30-share pack Sensex tumbled 2702.15 points or 4.72 per cent to close at 54,529.91. Its broader peer NSE Nifty tanked 815.30 points or 4.78 per cent to 16,247.95.
The appearance of a downward gap in today’s trade ensures a shift of range on the lower side. Hence, minor recovery might be there. However, levels of 17,300 could turn out as near term resistance. Nifty broke below the recent low, however, sustenance below 17,000 is essential to unlocking further downside till 16,630 zone.
The selling trigger was the worsening Ukraine crisis as Western nations warned Russian invasion could happen as soon as this week. All sectors of the market ended deep in the red. The 30-share pack Sensex dropped 1747.08 points or 3 per cent to close at 56,405.82.
Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,732.58 crore, data available with NSE suggested. DIIs turned net buyers to the tune of Rs 2,727.23 crore, data suggests.
Last three days of fall have shaved Rs 6.7 lakh crore worth of wealth off investor pockets on Dalal Street. The market value of all BSE listed stocks fell to Rs 263.76 lakh crore today against Rs 270 crore on February 2.
Sensex snaps 5-day losing run, rises 367 pts higher; Nifty above 17,250; Maruti soars 7%, Axis Bank 6%
CLOSING BELL: After a gap-down start to Tuesday's session, the domestic equity markets staged a smart rebound to recoup most losses amid low-level buying in stocks. Sensex had plunged over 1,000 points, while the Nifty50 tested 16,850 level in early trade. That said, traders keenly eyed the two-day Fed policy review starting later in the day. This excessive volatility is likely to continue for a few more days until clarity emerges from the crucial Fed meeting, said an analyst. Here are the top highlights of today's session:Sensex snaps 5-day losing run, rises 367 pts higher; Nifty above 17,250; Maruti soars 7%, Axis Bank 6%
Several technical indicators are flashing red after the benchmark indices fell 2.6% on Monday amid rising concern over faster-than-expected rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. If the Nifty breaks below the crucial support of 17,000 - the level from which the market bounced on Monday - the index could fall to as much as 16,700-16,800 in the near term, said analysts.
Equity benchmark Sensex on Monday crashed about 1,546 points to sink below the 58,000-level due to across-the-board selloff tracking sluggish global markets. Besides, persistent foreign capital outflows continued to affect the market sentiment, traders said. Benchmark indices started the session on a weaker note and the selling intensified during afternoon trade, with almost all sectoral indices ending in the red. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 1,545.67 points or 2.62 per cent lower at 57,491.51. Similarly, the NSE Nifty slumped 468.05 points or 2.66 per cent to 17,149.10.Sensex logs biggest daily fall since Nov 2021, nosedives 1,546 pts; Nifty tanks below 17,150
Smallcap stocks, which were insulated from the market selloff for most of the last week, have plunged 7 per cent over Thursday's high of 30,772. Here is the market selloff in numbers:
At a low of 55,840.14, the BSE Sensex was ruling 10.29 per cent lower than its record high of 62,245.43 hit on October 19. Nifty50 was 10.5 per cent off it's all-time high of 16,635.90.
The 30-share pack Sensex declined 1189.73 points or 2.09 per cent to close at 55,822.01. The index at one point had hit the low of 55,132.68 before late stage recovery. Its broader peer NSE Nifty fell 371 points or 2.18 per cent to 16,614.20.
A surge in benchmark bond yields spooked investors as they feared foreign investors will withdraw money from India now.
Heavyweights RIL and financials were among the worst hit, as worries over Q3 underperformance put them under pressure.
The 30-share pack Sensex crashed 1,406.73 points, down 3 per cent. In percentage terms, it was its biggest fall in seven months. Its broader peer NSE Nifty plunged 432.15 points or 3.14 per cent to 13,328.40.
IndusInd Bank saw low level buying after a 15 per cent fall in the previous session.
Crashes of this magnitude can spook even the most hardened of investors, and it is during such times that retail investors often end up taking knee-jerk calls.
The NSE 50-share Nifty also climbed to an all-time high of 7,808.85 before finishing the week at 7,459.60, showing a dip of 292.00 points or 3.77 per cent.
On receipt of the report of the consultant, NSE has been asked, within a period of 3 months thereafter, to submit a report to Sebi.
Emkay today admitted an error on its part for the 900-point flash crash of the NSE index Nifty and said it would help the stock exchange in probe.
Even though the recent rally didn’t come as a surprise, the ferocity of the rally took most investors by surprise. Broadly, there are two factors driving this rally: one, global and two, domestic. It is important to understand that the ongoing stock market rally is global.
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“Nifty ended at the lowest since mid October. A breach of 17087 level on the Nifty could result in a fall towards 16747. Up moves could face resistance at 17325,” said Deepak Jasani, Retail Research Head, HDFC Securities, said.
Further, fall in the Adani Group stocks dented sentiments dragging Sensex down 927 points to settle at 59,745. Sector-wise, all indices ended in the red, with Nifty Metal and Nifty PSU Bank emerging as top losers
History suggests that high beta stocks outperform in a bull market, but data for the last one year suggests otherwise. Stocks with a beta of less than one have given an average return of 24.36% in the past year compared to 21,47% by stocks above 1.
In the past two decades, the benchmark Nifty has rallied in six out of the nine times when crude prices ran up. In the month after the rally, the stock benchmark gained on five out of the nine times. The losses on three out of the four times have been less than 2%.
Low costs have drawn investors to these ETFs. These are getting preference over index funds that are not as cheap. But investors must add up all related costs before choosing between the two.
“Fundamentals of Indian economy continue to be strong,” said Atanu Chakraborty.
There are a few who fear that this can even lead to a depression.
The market crash of 32 per cent in March 2020 and the subsequent incredible recovery of around 100 per cent from the March lows reflect ‘Mr Market’s’ famed mood swings, writes VK Vijaykumar.
SIP collections hit new records with inflows of over ₹1 lakh cr in a fiscal for first time.
The strategy remains profitable till the Nifty reaches 12,825.
The 30-share Sensex lost 2,872.80 points to 38,297 on February 28 against 41,170 on February 20.
Many complacent trades, who took long positions based on television opinion polls and Satta Bazzar odds were caught on the wrong foot.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index advanced 0.29 per cent to a record high on Tuesday while the S&P 500 gained 0.75 per cent.
It was protectionist and inward-looking, seeking to reduce import dependence rather than increasing exports.
Emkay Global scrip today tanked 10 per cent to hit the lower trading limit after the NSE blamed it for placing erroneous orders worth Rs 650 crore.
Vedanta was the biggest BSE loser as it slumped 3.81 per cent, followed by Bajaj Auto (3.40%), Hero MotoCorp (2.81%) and GAIL (2.75%).
Meanwhile, the rupee tumbled by 64 paise, or 1 per cent, to hit a 13-month low of 63.58 against the dollar (intra-day).
Despite benchmark indices touching their all-time high levels, experts are advising stock investors against going short at this juncture.
I do not see the Nifty crashing down from current levels. I would take a bullish bias for the next couple of days and a stock specific view.
Every once in a while, there occurs an event in the life of institutions that shakes up carefully built reputations and raises questions on their governance.